Issue Brief 2 / 1996

Previous estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility, based on the 1986 Census and using comparisons with earlier censuses, found a substantial downward trend in Indigenous fertility from the 1950s to the early 1980s. The decline was from a high total fertility rate of about six children per woman in the 1950s to the early 1970s period, after which fertility fell steeply to about three children per woman in the first half on the 1980s. (Total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would be expected to bear by the end of her reproductive years.)

These findings of a downward trend in fertility led to an expectation that this decline would continue.

Indigenous fertility in the 1990s: decline or rise?

Two recent studies of Indigenous fertility, based on data from the 1991 Census, showed that Indigenous fertility levels had not continued to decline since the second half of the 1980s, as expected, but had remained constant between 1981 and 1991. One of these studies indicated a small fertility rise since the mid-1980s.

Dr Tesfaghiorghis questions the accuracy and reliability of these studies, pointing out that the 1991 Census, unlike previous censuses, did not collect any detailed, exact or reliable information on Indigenous people's fertility levels on which to base estimates. In this study the author used:

• the 1986 Census
• the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey of 1994
• birth registration provided by Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory and
• midwives' birth notifications for most States

to look for past and future trends in Indigenous fertility levels, and to see if there have been any fertility differences in the Indigenous population in the different States and Territories.

The research findings

Analysis of these data confirm the findings of the two previous studies and show that:

• Indigenous fertility did not decline between 1986 and 1994.
• Indigenous fertility rose between 1986 and 1990 and then levelled off and dropped a little.
• In the first half of the 1990s Indigenous fertility rose to a moderate total fertility rate of between 3.1 and 3.5 children per woman, with matching birth rates of between 29 and 33 births per thousand members of the Indigenous population. This contrasts with the rest of the Australian population which has a fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman and a birth rate of 15 births per 1,000 members of the population.
• The fertility of young Indigenous people, especially teenagers, has remained very high.
• The fertility of Indigenous women over 25 years of age has declined to the same level as, or even lower than, that of other Australian women in the general population.

A predicted rise in Indigenous fertility

The data suggests that the future fertility of Indigenous people could either:

• stay at about 3.1 children per woman, or
• could be at the higher level of around 3.5 children per woman.

The problem for researchers studying the Indigenous population is that information is fairly unreliable. While the birth registration data from Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia, and the midwives' birth notifications from Western Australia, the Northern Territory, South Australia and Queensland are becoming more reliable; recording of Indigenous births is still poor in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales and Tasmania.

To ensure that Indigenous women's fertility can be measured correctly from the midwives' records and birth notification systems it is important to identify all births to Indigenous mothers. This is becoming more difficult as mixed families become more common. The proportion of couples of mixed ancestry rose from 51 per cent in the 1986 Census to 57 per cent in the 1991 Census. Because it is difficult to collect records on the Indigenous population, it is essential to include a question on the number of children born and surviving to Indigenous women on future Australian census forms from 2001.

Trend in estimated Aboriginal total fertility rate

Policy implications

Key economic and social issues are closely related to Indigenous fertility levels, such as providing for education, housing and health. One past population forecast which was based on assuming a slow decline in fertility, showed that the rapid Indigenous population growth which had already occurred would result in the Government having difficulty in meeting a target for providing Indigenous employment. This target in the Aboriginal Employment Development Policy of 1987 was for equality in employment with other Australians by the year 2000. Thus the fertility rise in the Indigenous population shown by this study, rather than the drop in fertility predicted in previous forecasts of the future Indigenous population, will create even larger future employment problems.

H. Tesfaghiorghis

This Issue Brief summarised CAEPR Discussion Paper No. 103 by H. Tesfaghiorghis, published in May 1996. It was prepared by Linda Road, assisted by Melissa Lucashenko, and edited by Maureen MacKenzie-Taylor.