This briefing paper was prepared for the Australia 2020 Summit in April 2008. It examines trends and predictions for key Indigenous socioeconomic indicators in the context of the Rudd Government's policy commitment to eliminate the life expectancy gap between Indigenous and other Australians by 2030. (An expanded version of this paper is forthcoming in the CAEPR Working Paper series.)

[17 April 2008]

One of the more consistent findings of census-based analysis is that nationally, Indigenous Australians change their place of usual residence more often than the non-Indigenous population. Between 2001 and 2006, 46.5 per cent of the Indigenous population changed their place of usual residence, compared to 43.1 per cent for the non-Indigenous population. Population movement can have significant impacts on the ability of all levels of government to design forward-looking policy at a local level that takes into account the share of the population that identifies as being Indigenous.

Policy development in Indigenous affairs often proceeds with dated estimates of population and with little understanding of the likely impact of changing demographic parameters on future Indigenous population size and composition. To the extent that policy itself can influence demographic outcomes, this represents a significant deficiency in current planning methodology. To stimulate a dialogue around such issues, this paper models the national and regional population impacts of a continuation of existing mortality and fertility regimes compared to a situation where these converge.

Local area population counts and estimates are crucial inputs into policy planning and processes. However, population mobility in general, as well as large numbers of visitors to particular areas, place additional demands on resources and those providing essential services. The literature identifies a pressing need for standardised quantitative measures of the volume, frequency and flows of Indigenous temporary mobility and comparable spatial scales.

According to the 2006 Census, around three-quarters of Indigenous Australians live in regional areas or major cities. This represents a small, but noticeable increase from previous census years, especially in large regional towns. While most measured socioeconomic outcomes are advantageous relative to remote parts of the country, there are still substantial gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in regional and urban Australia.